Saturday, August 21, 2010

Will oil prices go up from here on in or fall?

Will future traders send prices higher since hurricane season is here or is oil overpriced?





thanksWill oil prices go up from here on in or fall?
I think oil prices will probably rise this week. Given the impact from hurricane Dean in the Bay of Compeche and its highly probable negative effects on the infrastructure of the Cantarell complex in Mexico.





It will depend upon the amount of damage from the storm if prices will remain in an upward bias.





However, if I were long I would be very tempted in taking profits into the event. The seasonally weak period for oil prices will begin as the hurricane season winds down in October and the usual overproduction to satisfy the heating oil season which is usually the typical trading pattern of oil.





If you want a price forecast a year into the future good luck . There are way too many unforseen variables that can skew this. All I can say is the price of oil will probably stay in upper ranges of what the economy can bear given the shift of the infrastructure impacts from a trend of a higher gravity crude.Will oil prices go up from here on in or fall?
Oil may not but gas will. That hurricane out there in the gulf will of course cause major damage to the refineries in Texas. Weather or not the damage is real is anybody's guess.
No one can tell you if oil will go up or down in the short run. There are simply too many variables: hurricanes, economic growth rates, refinery capacity, etc.





However, it will definitely go up in the long term. If your horizon is 10 years or more, then energy stocks are definitely on the growth curve.





My job takes me all over the world, and the growth in countries such as India and China is just unbelieveable. In even the course of one year, I can notice tremendous changes.





The demand from the developing world will insure that the cost of all energy continues to rise. Consider this one fact. The total population of the world is just over 6 billion and 2.7 billion of these people live in China or India!!
Crude oil will fall as it gets cooler because of the lower demand and less travel in the cooler months. Unless a hurricane hits refineries in the gulf region. Again.

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