Saturday, August 21, 2010

Question regarding the price of crude oil & the value of the US dollar:?

Back in July when the price of oil reached $147 a barrel, a lot of the rationale put forward had to do with the decling US dollar versus major world currencies. Now with oil down to maybe $62 a barrel, the US dollar, after having recovered from around 100 yen to about 107 yen, has fallen even further to 92 yen. I get the impression that the Japanese economy is in worse shape than the US economy, so why has the dollar lost so much additional value so quickly? And how can the oil markets seemingly be turning such a blind eye, now, to this dollar decline? (Don't get me wrong...I'm happy to be benefitting from this ';reverse tax increase';, but the underlying economics don't seem to all add up. Unless, of course, it's just the case that worldwide economic concerns are trumping every other variable, in which case, is this oil-price decline just another speculative bubble, sure to break sometime? Albeit, a deflationary bubble?)Question regarding the price of crude oil %26amp; the value of the US dollar:?
Depressed Oil prices will affect the Gulf nations both sooner and later.Question regarding the price of crude oil %26amp; the value of the US dollar:?
The bigger part of the price of oil is supply/demand.


The world economic picture has reduced the demand for oil to the point that there is a surplus supply (we are only talking a difference in days of supply but the amount globally is huge). To illustrate this point look to the recent period where OEC had an emergency session, announced a production cut and the price still dropped. This reflects the perception that there will still be a surplus supply (folks compete to sell the amount of oil the have in inventory) and the reality that OPEC knows some of their members will fudge (although by gentleman's agreement among the Sheiks they keep it to a certain level I'm sure). This illustration about the effect that supply plays on oil price illustrates the reality of the effect of increasing our own domestic supplies will have on the price until we can get to a point where we have other energy options.

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