Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Wouldn't low oil prices be good for refineries?

If gas is lower, the refinery will sell more gas. VLO dropped to 53.40 from 67.00. Is it a good buy?Wouldn't low oil prices be good for refineries?
As Nice_Guy said, price of the feedstock is just one part of the equation. All things being equal, lower oil prices are good for refineries. But all things are never equal. Refineries have to sell their product. If prices are low because demand is slackening, they may have to shrink their margins or refine less product.





Other factors include the weather (unusually hot or cold summer or winter), inventories (how much refined product is in storage compared to capacity), politics (is the Strategic Oil Reserve being restocked or depleted? is Congress likely to loosen laws relating to new refinery construction or make changes to other issues that affect the industry?), and natural disasters (is capacity reduced due to a hurricane?). Also, what is the business up to? Are they issuing new shares, are there any regulatory problems, etc.?





I wouldn't run out and buy Valero just because of the one factor you asked about.Wouldn't low oil prices be good for refineries?
I dont know but my damn schlumberger is taking it on the chin, i should have sold this turkey in may...if i wait i will be stuck with it for years until it ';recovers';
Not necessarily. Currently with high prices, wells that are not normally considered profitable are being turned on again as they are making money. With lower oil prices, the volume of drilling, exploration and wells actively producing will go down as there is less money to spend. With less new production coming on stream, the refineries will not sell more gas, but the gas consumption would have to go down or they wouldn't be able to meet the demand. High oil prices mean high demand. If the demand isn't there, the prices shrink and the refineries sell less (for example the recent drop is due to less demand over the peak summer season).
In answer to your first question, sure - buying more gas would ultimately be good for refineries. It doesn't look so good to stock holders, however, and every decision is made with their best interest in mind.

Why are crude oil prices so high right now?

OPEC could be restricting oil supply, thus with lower supply =%26gt; higher prices...Why are crude oil prices so high right now?
From a historical perspective, gas prices acutually aren't that high. Over the last century overall real prices have been declining. Also if adjusted for inflation today's prices are still much lower than those experienced in the late 70s and early 80s.








References to the oil prices are usually either references to the spot price of either WTI/Light Crude as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma; or the price of Brent as traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, which the International Petroleum Exchange has been incorporated into) for delivery at Sullom Voe. The price of a barrel (which is 42 gallons) of oil is highly dependent on both its grade (which is determined by factors such as its specific gravity or API and its sulphur content) and location. The vast majority of oil will not be traded on an exchange but on an over-the-counter basis, typically with reference to a marker crude oil grade that is typically quoted via pricing agencies such as Argus Media Ltd and Platts. For example in Europe a particular grade of oil, say Fulmar, might be sold at a price of ';Brent plus US$0.25/barrel'; or as an intra-company transaction. IPE claim that 65% of traded oil is priced off their Brent benchmarks. Other important benchmarks include Dubai, Tapis, and the OPEC basket. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses the Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost, the weighted average cost of all oil imported into the US as their ';world oil price';.





Oil demand is highly dependent on global macroeconomic conditions, so this is also an important determinant of price. Some economists claim that high oil prices have a large negative impact on the global growth. This means that the relationship between the oil price and global growth is not particularly stable although a high oil price is often thought of as being a late cycle phenomenon.





OPEC, comprised of Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela, was formed to maintain the price of oil at a level most beneficial to its membership considered as a whole, and is considered to be a cartel by most observers.








[edit] Price history


It has been suggested that this section be split into a new article entitled Price of oil. (Discuss)


A recent low point was reached in January 1999, after increased oil production from Iraq coincided with the Asian financial crisis, which reduced demand. The prices then rapidly increased, more than doubling by September 2000, then fell until the end of 2001 before steadily increasing, reaching US $40 to US $50 per barrel by September 2004. [2] In October 2004, light crude futures contracts on the NYMEX for November delivery exceeded US $53 per barrel and for December delivery exceeded US $55 per barrel. Crude oil prices surged to a record high above $60 a barrel in June 2005, sustaining a rally built on strong demand for gasoline and diesel and on concerns about refiners' ability to keep up. This trend continued into early August 2005, as NYMEX crude oil futures contracts surged past the $65 mark as consumers kept up the demand for gasoline despite its high price. (see Oil price increases of 2004-2006).) Crude oil futures peaked at a close of over $77 a barrel in July 2006, and in December 2006 at about $63. That is just about where they began the year 2006.[3]





Individuals can now trade crude oil through online trading sites margin account or their banks through structured products indexed on the Commodities markets.





See also History and Analysis of Crude Oil Prices, asymmetric price transmission, and Benchmark (crude oil)Why are crude oil prices so high right now?
Summer is on its way...oh...we are at war too.

When will the oil prices go down?

Second Tuesday of next week.When will the oil prices go down?
When people start taking this gas thing seriously, then oil prices will decrease. I decided to walk 2 miles to work twice a week, walk to the grocery store, anything to conserve gas. I refuse to be suckered into paying for a gallon of gas for $5.00. Due to high gas prices, food have gone up also, and it not going to stop at food. Please join me and conserve where you can, let's see how many barrels of oil we can leave in these big corporations' inventory. It will be so sad when the day come when we have to borrow gas money from family and friends and not be able to pay back the loan.When will the oil prices go down?
The oil prices were already low. Look at the prices in Europe... they were (and are) paying much more than what we pay. This is why cars are not as commonplace as in the states. It is more probable that we will be paying similar to the Europeans in the next few years. We are ALL feeling the hole in our wallets. This is one reason why it is important to focus on alternative energy sources for transportation (e.g., water, hydrogen powered, hybrids, electric, etc.).
The big picture answer would be ';When people stop using so much.';





It's all supply and demand. China and India are using more, the USA has not stopped driving hummers and SUV's, and all that costs power.





Not to mention hot weather causes more electricity which is not powered by electricity but by natural gas, which is what... oil based? Not sure how that works, but my electric company told me my electric bill went up because the cost of natural gas went up...





Don't know. Don't drive so much, get rid of the high performance vehicles and low mileage vehicles, and buy a motorcycle, scooter, bicycle......





Bush wants to drill in Alaska. Environmental lobbyists are keeping that from happening.





Wish I knew the answer.
Probably not for a long time player unless we are able to find some oil in Canada or Russia or alternative energy because less costly to use. I'm personally going to start riding my bike and carpooling more. I would also recommend using solar polar on your house if you have one.
Never. Unless some new super efficient and cheap source of energy is discovered and oil is no longer in demand, it will never go down dramatically because we are running out of a limited supply.
I'm very sorry to say that it will never happen. I wish that it would but, it's just not ever going to happen. That sucks big time. I just hate it. We could all use it. Everything is going up except wages.
When the president(be it Bush or whoever gets elected next) decides to move our troops out of the middle east and start drilling in Alaska.
When enough people quit using so much oil....probably never again.
When America starts to drill for oil in the north of Canada.
Whenever it feels like it.
ooooh about half past never? or february 30th, whichever comes first?
in the year 23258329852334 give or take a few millenia
Probably never
I dont know but I hope real real.. soon......
When there's none left.
I'll buy ';Never'; for ';500'; Bob.
Note the date on this report! American and European prices are out of date.





There is NO LIMIT on the price of oil. How much would a man who is dying of starvation pay for a loaf of bread?





May 29th 2008


From The Economist print edition


Not everybody is paying higher prices for oil


HALF of the world's population enjoys fuel subsidies.


This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world's petrol is sold at less than the market price.


The cheapest petrol is in Venezuela, at 5 cents per litre.


That makes China's pump price of 79 cents seem expensive, but even this is a bargain compared with $1.04 in the United States and $2.35 in Germany (see chart).


As the gap has widened between soaring international prices and fixed domestic prices, so has the cost of subsidies. Indeed, budgetary strains are now forcing some governments to lift prices.


On May 24th Indonesia raised fuel prices by around 30%. This was the first increase since 2005, but it still leaves petrol too cheap at 65 cents a litre.


Dearer oil is likely to push up inflation from 9% to 12%.


But without the increase, the government's subsidy bill was heading for an alarming 3% of GDP this year.


In the past week Taiwan has also raised petrol prices by 13% and Sri Lanka has lifted them by 24%.


Malaysia has one of the biggest fuel-subsidy bills in the world, estimated at as much as 7% of GDP this year.


By holding down the price of petrol, Malaysia now has the lowest inflation rate of all the 32 emerging economies tracked by The Economist.


But the government is expected to allow prices to rise soon to curb its widening budget deficit.


In theory, rising crude-oil prices should reduce global demand.


But if domestic prices are capped, then emerging economies will continue to guzzle oil, pushing world prices still higher.


Emerging economies accounted for more than the whole increase in world oil consumption last year鈥攂ecause demand in the rich economies fell.


But recent price increases will make little difference to global consumption unless China and India follow suit.


India's state-owned oil companies face mounting losses, as they are forced to sell fuel at fixed prices below cost.


Petrol prices are actually slightly higher in India than in the United States, because Indian motorists pay much higher fuel taxes, but diesel is about 40% cheaper than in America.


The oil firms are partly compensated by bonds which the government issues to them鈥攁 trick which allows the government to keep the subsidy off its books.


At today's prices, the total subsidy (including the full losses of oil companies) could be as much as 2-3% of GDP this year. Morgan Stanley estimates that the government's total budget deficit (central and state governments and all off-budget items) is running at 9% of GDP in this fiscal year.


The government must hold an election by May next year, so it is reluctant to raise fuel prices by much. It is thought to be considering a modest rise combined with a cut in excise duty.


In early 2008 Chinese motorists paid roughly the same for their petrol as Americans did.


Whereas the pump price in America has since jumped by 33%, Chinese prices have remained fixed, swelling the losses of state-owned refiners.


According to Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economic research firm, the retail price for diesel is about 40% below that in America.


To cut their losses, oil firms have reduced supply, causing shortages at some petrol stations.


However, China is less likely than other countries to lift prices soon.


Oil subsidies are estimated at less than 1% of GDP, and its budget surplus and small public debt mean that the government can afford to keep prices down for some time. Most likely, it will delay increasing fuel prices until food-price inflation has eased.


Across the emerging world, governments fear that lifting fuel prices will hurt the poor and so trigger social unrest.


Yet fuel subsidies are an inefficient way to protect the poor: they mainly benefit the richer owners of cars and air-conditioners, and favour energy- and capital-intensive industries, rather than those that create most jobs.


An IMF study of five emerging economies found that the richest 20% of households received, on average, 42% of total fuel subsidies; the bottom 20% received less than 10%. That money would be better spent on health, education and infrastructure. Not only would this benefit the poor, but higher prices would also help to dampen global oil consumption, and hence the price of oil.

Is offshore drilling gonna have a big impact on crude oil prices?

http://brosgarcia.comIs offshore drilling gonna have a big impact on crude oil prices?
It will have some effect, but the reality is it will neither be large or immediate. However, there are many more important reasons to support offshore drilling:





-- It keeps the money at home and supports the US economy and the dollar


-- It provides jobs for Americans and reduces the unemployment and welfare rolls


-- It provides a source of energy that helps to ensure the security of this nation for the next 20-30 years...the time it will take to wean our country off of fossil fuels


-- It potentially keeps us out of foreign wars related to our thirst for oil


-- It provides many billions of tax dollars to the US government. The lease auctions alone put several billion dollars a year in revenue to government coffers -- that is an immediate benefit. The royalty fees and taxes on the successful oil companies will provide many billions more. People dont know it, but the US government (in the form of gasoline taxes, O%26amp;G royalties, lease auctions, corporate income taxes, and personal income taxes of oil company employees) makes many times more money on high oil prices than do the ExxonMobil's of the world.





Reducing the price of gasoline is one reason to support offshore drilling. However, ensuring the economic and military security of this nation is far more important.Is offshore drilling gonna have a big impact on crude oil prices?
Not any time soon. It'll take 5-10 years before we see an impact. Some analysts are estimating we won't see a change until 2030.





The reason why it will take so long is because they still need to find the oil and build the rig. In order to compensate for the cost of searching, building and employment they will raise the price of gas.





We won't see a change any time soon. This is just a solution that is being passed to make the public happy. In my opinion, they should take the millions of dollars they are going to spend on offshore drilling and invest it in studies for alternative fuel. Even if we pursue offshore drilling, how long until we run out of that and are in the same situation?
NO, it takes too long to develop a new oil field, especially one in the ocean. Something like 10 to 12 years for production. And while there is oil there, it's not huge fields that will actually make a difference when they do start producing. Opening the off shore drilling is just a political tactic so the politicians can say they've done something. It's kind of like planting a tree to help with wood prices. It's 40 years before the tree is big enough to harvest.
There isn't going to be any just because the stupid congress has a stop on it. If they do not get together and lift the ban on drilling there will never be any. Just because the president lifted th executive ban --Congress must do so also
I believe offshore drilling won't make a difference. It's already estimated that by 2010 a gallon of gas will be around $7.
  • jabbawockeez mask
  • Do you think oil prices will ruin the U.S. financially if they keep rising?

    From what i see the higher the barrel price, the lower our economy seems to drop. Do you all think that it will ruin the US?Do you think oil prices will ruin the U.S. financially if they keep rising?
    Probably not. Believe it or not, the economy is slowly rebounding. I am not saying it's great, but we've had so many bad things happen to our economy in the past, it seems unlikely that high oil prices will do us in. As a matter of fact, Canada, England, Japan, France, and the U.S. just met up a few weeks ago to discuss ways to restrengthen the dollar due to fear that the Euro may grow too strong and throw the world econoy out of whack. When the plan goes into action, the pressure on the economy should be alleviated.Do you think oil prices will ruin the U.S. financially if they keep rising?
    The real question is if the middle class and the working poor will be able to survive the high prices of energy. The rich will make out like bandits by investing in the oil futures market, driving the prices higher and higher. With their profit , they can afford the higher cost of food, gas, electricity, cheaper value of the dollar (inflation) The middle class will cease to exist, and will become the working poor, and the working poor will become the welfare class . The businesses and corporations will enjoy the benefits of a large increase in the labor pool, driving down wages even farther, increasing their profit margins ever higher. This is happening because of a corrupt and ineffectual government that is contributing to the problem. I fear we are rapidly reaching the point that nothing short of wholesale changes in our government will save us from the greed that is running rampant through out our economy. Big oil, oil speculators, corporate greed ( no profit margin is large enough) and lobbyist that control our politicians for the benefit of special interests groups that care nothing about the average American , but rather the profits of their corporate masters. we need a third party to represent the needs of the average American. We have no one to represent us!
    that seems to be the general idea


    oil isn't just for gas, it's used for many products


    why doesn't the govt use the stock-piles of oil it's sitting on?





    %26amp; the financial situation is going to get worse -





    http://www.lookingglassnews.org/viewstor鈥?/a>
    The USA has been financially ruined since the erection of the Federal Reserve.
    Ruin? Ruin? it takes our freedom to move about.. and yes it will put us in a depression.. since we are already in a recession..
    they already have.
    Yep, you nailed it dude, our country will sure go down. :=(

    The gover ment should control the price we pay for gas. the oil companys have ripped us off?

    the gov is already doing it to us. if we didn't have such high taxes it would be cheaper, if the gov would allow more refinery's, it would be cheaper, if the gov would allow more drilling in alaska it would be cheaper. So the rip off people is the gov. not the oil companys. And if the gov would allow us to vote on the issue it would be cheaper.The gover ment should control the price we pay for gas. the oil companys have ripped us off?
    How would you like it if the government regulated the size of your pay check? Considering you are even asking this quesition implies the government already does. It probably artifically increases your pay. Listen the oil industry needs to make money like everyone else. They also expect to make a profit. What do you mean rip us off??? The price of oil is based on supply and demand. If you think the price of gas is too high, then get a smaller car which uses less of it. Why not take public transportation? The oil firms didn't force anyone to buy an SUV's. Did you know in Europe the a gallon of petro costs like $5? Don't cry about the price here. No one shed a tear for the oil firms back in the early '90's when they hurting for profit and oil was dirt cheap. Bottom line: If you think the price of gas is too high, then drive less, get a home closer to work, or buy a smaller car. Let me ask you what you drive????

    Why/how do oil prices effect the world economy?

    Oil is a major world trade.


    Most countries need oil for vehicles and machinery that run on oil/gasoline. Without it things would never get done.


    Why/how do oil prices effect the world economy?
    Oil is a commodity and is extensively traded in business and corporate organizations. AS u know, without oil, there's practically nothing much we can do.. cars, cooking etc all requires oil. Well due to the skyrocketd oil prices, investors lost confidence and there was a huge tumble in market.. Many biz got affected and inflation rose. The world economy fell as an end result.Why/how do oil prices effect the world economy?
    Oil and oil products are used in every step of production of every product from apples to Zantac. Diesel, Gasoline, LP gas, jet fuel, are used in production and transportation. Many products contain , or are packaged in plastics, which are made from oil.
    Oil provides the energy both for production and transit of goods. This cost does affect the price and ecen the consumption of said goods. Thus the economy is directly affected by oil prices..
    too complicated to fully get into..





    but ^ in oil prices equals ^ in gas prices which = less travel, less production, less consumption...
    Wow do they, just imagine the amount of money that is spent on Oil around the world every day.



    it reduces disposable income available for other goods and services